What Addis Ababa has spent two years denying is now staring it in the face—on White House letterhead. The January 16 letter from Donald Trump to Abdel Fattah el-Sisi isn’t just about mediation. It’s a signal. Clear, deliberate, and consequential. Washington is aligning itself
A Regional Security Threat and Potential for Destabilisation of the Horn of Africa, the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden Regions and Redrawing the Map of the Horn of Africa On December 26, 2025, the State of Israel announced its formal recognition of the Republic of Somaliland as an
Somalia’s Council of Ministers has formally terminated all bilateral security and defence agreements with the United Arab Emirates, marking one of the most consequential foreign-policy moves taken by the federal government in recent years. In a cabinet decision adopted on Sunday,
Israel’s announcement on Thursday recognizing Somaliland as an independent and sovereign state has triggered immediate diplomatic fallout across the Horn of Africa and the Middle East, reopening long-standing legal and geopolitical fault lines rather than delivering the stability
There are moments in diplomacy when silence is louder than words. And there are moments when a picture—deliberately chosen, officially circulated—does more damage than a thousand speeches. The map displayed this week in a video released by Ethiopia’s Prime Minister’s Office belon
There are moments in political life when a leader inadvertently reveals the architecture of his worldview. Sometimes it comes dressed in eloquence; sometimes it leaks out through a metaphor so coarse, so naked in intent, that it cannot be brushed off as a slip of the tongue. Abiy
When the United States released its National Security Strategy in November 2025, most observers fixated on China, Russia, EU and the shifting landscape in the Middle East. Few looked at the final pages—three compressed paragraphs under “Africa”—where Washington quietly rewrote ho
Somalia’s Defence Minister Ahmed Moalim Fiqi has confirmed that aircraft are departing from Bosaso Airport in Puntland bound for Sudan, Chad, and Niger , a disclosure that adds weight to mounting evidence of covert operations feeding the Sudan conflict. Addressing Somalia’s Up
Abiy Ahmed’s Isolation Is Self-Inflicted: How a Chain of Short-Term Gambits Backfired There’s a pattern to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s statecraft: grab for the nearest lever, declare victory, and deal with the blowback later. That cycle—tactical bargains unmoored from strategy—ha
When a hijab-wearing influencer posts about her love for Somalia or her prayers for peace in Sudan, most viewers scroll past without suspicion. But behind some of those polished smiles, there’s no real woman at all — only an image stolen, edited, and deployed for propaganda. A B
The map says it all. From the blood-red zones of Amhara and Benishangul-Gumuz to the orange cautions stretching across Oromia and Somali regions, Australia’s Smartraveller advisory paints Ethiopia not as a tourist destination — but as a country consumed by conflict, fear, and s
If you only read Addis Ababa’s 2 October letter to the UN, you’d think Ethiopia is a beleaguered neighbor fending off an Eritrean onslaught and some shadowy “Tsimdo” plot. Reality is less theatrical and far more documented: for a full year Ethiopia’s leadership has normalized tal
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